Builder Confidence Unchanged in August

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged at a low level of 15 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for August, released today.

"Builders continue to confront the same major challenges they have seen over the past year, including competition from the large inventory of distressed homes on the market, inaccurate appraisal values, and issues with their buyers not being able to sell an existing home or qualify for favorable mortgage rates because of overly tight underwriting requirements," said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. He noted that 41 percent of respondents to a special questions section of the HMI indicated they had lost sales contracts due to buyers' inability to sell their current homes.

"The uncertain economic climate and concerns about job security are discouraging many potential buyers from exploring a home purchase at this time," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "While buying conditions are very favorable in terms of prices, interest rates and selection, consumers are worried about what the future will bring, and builders are echoing those sentiments in their responses to the HMI survey."

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two out of three of the HMI's component indexes posted marginal gains in August. The component gauging current sales conditions gained one point to 16 – its highest level since March of this year – and the component gauging traffic of prospect buyers rose one point to 13 following two consecutive months at 12. However, the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined two points to 19, partially offsetting a six-point gain from the last month's revised number.

Regionally, the HMI results were mixed in August. While the Northeast posted a four-point gain to 19, the West registered a one-point gain to 15, the South held even at 17 and the Midwest posted a two-point decline, to 10.

55+ Builders More Optimistic About Multifamily Rentals than New Home Sales

Builders in the 55+ housing market are significantly more optimistic about production and demand for multifamily rental units than they are for sales of single-family homes or multifamily condos, according to the latest 55+ Housing Market Indices that are compiled quarterly by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

All of the components measuring production and demand for 55+ multifamily rental units increased significantly in the second quarter of 2011 compared to the same period a year ago.

In comparison, the 55+ Housing Market Indices for single-family units and multifamily condos were largely unchanged with increases from 12 to 13 and from 7 to 8, respectively.

“Like those in other age groups, many people in the mature-market sector are hesitant to buy,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. “Among the factors keeping prospective home buyers on the sidelines are ongoing uncertainty about the economy and concerns about selling their existing homes. Low appraisals and tighter mortgage lending criteria are also constraining the market.”

The 55+ Housing Market Indices (HMI) for single-family homes and multifamily condos measure builder sentiment based on current sales, traffic of prospective buyers and expected sales six months in the future.

The 55+ Multifamily Rental indices measure current production, expected production six months in the future, current demand for existing rental units and expected demand six months in the future. In all of the 55+ Housing Market Indices, a number greater than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The 55+ Multifamily Rental indices showed increases from 15 to 28 in current production, from 16 to 29 in expected production six months in the future, and from 31 to 43 in current demand for existing units.

“Multifamily rentals are the strongest segment of the 55+ housing market at present,” said Nielsen. “The largest increase in a 55+ Multifamily Rental index was in expected demand six months in the future, which rose from 30 to 44,” he said. “An increase in demand is always good news, but this could also foreshadow a shortage of rental units in the future. Demand is already running ahead of production, and the continuing difficulty in obtaining credit to finance new construction could result in shortages down the road.”

Among the components of the 55+ Single-Family index, present sales were unchanged at 12, and expected sales increased one point from 17 to 18. Traffic of prospective buyers increased from 12 to 13.

The 55+ Multifamily Condo index components showed a slight increase – from 7 to 8 – in current sales. Expected sales six months in the future were unchanged at 10, and traffic of prospective buyers increased slightly from 5 to 7.

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