Finding Rembrandt at the Dallas Museum of Art

A presentation on art theft. In an art museum. Why not, I thought.

Last night Late Night at the DMA hosted a full room in the auditorium for a presentation by Art Detective Robert Wittman. That was followed by two films, Stolen, a film about the 1995 heist at the Gardner Museum in Boston and F for Fake, the last major film completed by Orson Welles.

The highlight was certainly Priceless: How I Went Undercover to Rescue the World’s Stolen Treasures. Wittman is the founder of the FBI Art Crime Team and author of Priceless, which had sold out of the gift shop following the lecture.

Read more at Urban Art & Antiques

Dallas Among Worst Places to Walk

As I walked back from Uptown along Bowen/Cedar Springs last night, I came to a section near Turtle Creek with no sidewalks on either side of the dark road. The sidewalks just end, forcing pedestrians into brush or onto the street. This seems like such an easy thing to remedy, yet my guess is its been that way for some time. A missing section of vehicular roadway would not be tolerated for a day.

Today a tweet came across my deck regarding preventable pedestrian deaths. Listed were then ten worst places in the U.S. to walk, and coming in at number ten on that list is Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington.

Here's a video I shot trying to walk from the TRE Medical/Market station to Katy Trail.

As the group Transportation for Americans points out, Beyond making new and refurbished roads safer for pedestrians, we need to create complete networks of sidewalks, bicycle paths and trails so that residents can travel safely throughout an area.

RE/MAX Says Home Sales Remain Flat

The July 2011 RE/MAX National Housing Report, which surveyed 53 U.S. metropolitan areas, shows signs of a continuing, but uneven, recovery in the housing market. After rising for two straight months, Home Sales fell 12.7 percent in July when compared with sales in June, following a traditional summer trend. However, for the first time in six months, Home Sales were higher than one year ago, up an impressive 13.1 percent from July 2010. Strict lending standards, bad appraisals and concern about the economy all contributed to lower-than-normal sales in July. 

Many lenders are already using the lower GSE and FHA loan limits set to take effect on September 30. Home Prices were even and inventory levels continued to fall for a thirteenth straight month.

“The fact that July home sales were higher than a year ago, and by such a significant amount, gives us reason for great optimism,” said Margaret Kelly, CEO of RE/MAX, LLC. “And now that prices have risen for four of the past five months, the housing market is beginning to show definite signs of

recovery.”

In the last 12 months, only January and July had Home Sales higher than the previous year. January was up fractionally and July was up a solid 13.1 percent from July, 2010. Both investors and traditional home

buyers became more skittish about the economy in July, perhaps due to the Debt Ceiling debate. 

Traditionally, June sales are the highest of the year, with a slight drop in July. Overall, sales were 12.7 percent lower in July than in June. However, 45 metro areas experienced more sales than in July of last

year including: Des Moines, IA +49.9 percent, Omaha, NE +46.8 percent, Milwaukee, WI

+37.7 percent, Providence, RI +32.4 percent and Wichita, KS +29 percent.

The July 2011 RE/MAX National Housing Report shows that Home Prices in July were just 0.18 percent lower than in June, while the year-over-year decrease of 4.6 percent is the smallest the survey has recorded in 6 months. On a monthly basis, prices have now risen for four of the past five months.

There were 11 metro areas that recorded higher prices in July than in the same month last year, most notably: Detroit +14.3 percent, Birmingham, AL +9.8 percent, Des Moines, IA +7.7 percent, Orlando, FL +5.5 percent and Pittsburgh, PA +4.4 percent.

The average Days on Market for homes sold in July was 88, down just two days from the June level. July marks the first month since September, 2010 that the Days on Market figure has been below 90. 

The July average is identical to September, 2010, when the average Days on Market was also 88. Days on Market is the average number of days from listing to receipt of a signed contract. Perhaps due to fewer foreclosure properties coming on the market, the 53 metro areas surveyed in the July, 2011 RE/MAX National Housing Report had an average Months Supply of Inventory of 7.2, which is up slightly from the 6.9 mark registered in June, but down significantly from the 9.3 mark seen in July

2010. 

Overall inventory continued a 13-month trend to lower levels. Inventories were 5.3 percent lower in July from June, and down 17.1 percent from July, 2010. The Florida markets continue to see the largest annual drop in inventory: Miami, FL -52.5 percent, Tampa, FL -37.3 percent, Phoenix, AZ -35.6 percent, Los Angeles, CA -32.4 percent and Chicago, IL -26.9 percent.

Existing-Home Sales Down in July but Up Strongly From a Year Ago

Existing-home sales declined in July from an upwardly revised June pace but are notably higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Monthly gains in the Northeast and Midwest were offset by declines in the West and South.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million in July from 4.84 million in June, but are 21.0 percent above the 3.86 million unit pace in July 2010, which was a cyclical low immediately following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is a tug and pull on the market. “Affordability conditions this year have been the most favorable on record dating back to 1970, but many buyers are being held back because banks are offering financing to only the most highly qualified borrowers, ignoring a large share of otherwise creditworthy buyers,” he said. “Those potential buyers represent the difference between an uneven recovery and a much more robust housing market that could stimulate additional economic activity and create jobs.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.55 percent in July, up from 4.51 percent in June; the rate was 4.56 percent in July 2010. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 4.32 percent.

Contract failures – cancellations caused largely by declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price – were unchanged in July, reported by 16 percent of NAR members. In addition, 9 percent of Realtors report a contract was delayed in the past three months due to low appraisals, and another 13 percent said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price because an appraisal was below the initially agreed price.

NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said an unacceptably high number of potential home buyers are unable to complete transactions. “For both mortgage credit and home appraisals, there’s been a parallel pendulum swing from very loose standards which led to the housing boom, to unnecessarily restrictive practices as an overreaction to the housing correction,” he said.

“Beyond the tight credit problems, all appraisals must be done by valuators with local expertise and using reasonable comparisons – it doesn’t make sense to consistently see so many valuations coming in below negotiated prices, often below replacement construction costs,” Phipps said.

In an environment following a large price correction, Phipps said a price negotiated between a buyer and seller would appear to be a fair market price. “Banks frequently request numerous sales comparisons, well beyond the customary three comps used in the past, with little consideration that some of those properties may be discounted foreclosures used to valuate a traditional home in good condition,” he said. “To a great extent, banks are exerting influence on appraised valuations with negative impacts for both home sales and prices.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,000 in July, down 4.4 percent from July 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – accounted for 29 percent of sales in July, compared with 30 percent in June and 32 percent in July 2010.

Total housing inventory at the end of July fell 1.7 percent to 3.65 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from a 9.2-month supply in June.

All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of transactions in July, unchanged from June; they were 30 percent in June 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.

First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in July, up from 31 percent in June; they were 38 percent in July 2010. Investors accounted for 18 percent of purchase activity in July compared with 19 percent in June and 19 percent in July 2010. The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were a 50 percent market share in July, unchanged from June.

Single-family home sales declined 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.12 million in July from 4.29 million in June, but are 21.5 percent above the 3.39 million level in July 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $174,800 in July, down 4.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 550,000 in July, and are 17.3 percent above the 469,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $168,400 in July, down 4.0 percent from July 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 2.7 percent to an annual level of 750,000 in July and are 19.0 percent above July 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $245,600, down 6.8 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 1.0 percent in July to a pace of 1.05 million and are 31.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $146,300, down 2.9 percent from July 2010.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 1.6 percent to an annual level of 1.84 million in July but are 19.5 percent above July 2010. The median price in the South was $152,600, which is 2.2 percent below a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 12.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.04 million in July but are 16.9 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $208,300 down 7.1 percent from July 2010.

MBA Says Mortgage Applications Increased

Mortgage applications increased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 12, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.5 percent lower than a year ago. The Refinance Index increased 8.0 percent from the previous week, but was 16.3 percent lower than the same week last year. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 10.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 1.1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Unprecedented volatility in the stock market last week amid additional signs that the economy has slowed led to further drops in mortgage rates, with the 15-year rate reaching a new low for the MBA survey,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Purchase application activity fell sharply over the previous week, likely the result of potential homebuyers hesitant to purchase in this highly volatile and uncertain environment.”

Fratantoni continued, “Refinance application volume increased substantially for the week, although there was substantial variation across the market. In September MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey will transition to an expanded sample that covers 75 percent of the retail market rather than the current sample that covers roughly 50 percent of the retail market. That expanded sample showed a significantly larger increase in refinance applications than the current sample, with some lenders reporting increases in refinance applications in excess of 50 percent for the week. The big differences in refinance volumes were likely driven by the decisions of some lenders not to drop rates last week, largely due to the need to manage their pipelines.”

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 6.9 percent. The four week moving average is down 2.2 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 10.1 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 78.8 percent of total applications from 75.6 percent the previous week, the highest the refinance share has been since November 2010. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.32 percent from 4.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.87 from 1.07 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week. The 30-year fixed contract rate has decreased for three straight weeks and is at a new low for this year.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.47 percent from 3.52 percent, with points increasing to 1.08 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week. The 15-year contract rate is at lowest level in the history of this survey.

Construction Permits Down for July

The Commerce Department’s U.S. Census Bureau today released data on new residential construction for July 2011. Permits for new housing units fell 3.2 percent following a small increase in June. Private-sector analysts had expected a 1.8-percent decline. The decrease was driven by multi-family homes with five or more units. Permits for single-family homes and those with two-to-four units both increased. Housing starts declined 1.5 percent in July after a large increase in June. Private-sector analysts had expected a 4.6-percent decrease.

“There are still a significant number of foreclosed homes on the market across the country, making it more difficult for the new housing market to grow,” Acting U.S. Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank said. “Our focus is on job creation, because as more people find employment in good paying jobs, they will become more likely to invest in a home–driving the inventory of foreclosed homes down and the construction of new homes up. This administration will continue to work with Congress to pass job-creating measures that will boost not only the housing market but our entire economic outlook.”

Most Single-Family Renters Will Continue to Rent Rather than Buy Their Next Home

Fannie Mae's latest quarterly National Housing Survey (NHS) finds consumer pessimism growing with concerns about job loss, as 64 percent of Americans surveyed during the second quarter saying the economy is on the wrong track, the most for any quarter since the inception of the survey in the first quarter of 2010. That pessimism continued to mount in July, with Fannie Mae's monthly survey finding that 70 percent now believe the economy is on the wrong track, and just 23 percent say the economy is heading in the right direction.

"Consumers are more cautious due to concerns over employment and household finances," said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. "As a result, consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, ground to a halt in the second quarter. Consumers are more hesitant to take on additional financial commitments, and a setback to confidence means a setback to the recovery of the housing market."

Job Security

• Twenty-six percent of American workers report being concerned about losing their job in the next twelve months. While 44 percent of concerned American workers report having a home mortgage (compared to 42 percent of all Americans), just 33 percent of them perceive their savings to be sufficient (versus 49 percent of those workers not concerned about losing their job).
• Forty-four percent of these workers say their household expenses have increased significantly over the past year, compared to 35 percent of workers not concerned about losing their job.
• Employed Americans concerned about job loss are more likely than all employed Americans to say it is a bad time to buy a home and they are more likely to say they would rent their next home.

Single-Family Renters

• More than fifty percent of renters report living in single-family homes.
• Despite just 23 percent of single-family renters saying that renting makes more sense than buying a home, 53 percent say they would continue renting if they were going to move.
• Seventy-three percent of single-family renters say it would be difficult for them to get a home mortgage, with 33 percent citing their credit history as the biggest obstacle to getting a home mortgage (versus 20 percent of multifamily renters).
• Compared to multifamily renters, single-family renters are younger and more likely to have children.

Minority Mortgage Borrowers

• Thirty-one percent of minority mortgage borrowers report being underwater compared to 23 percent of non-minority mortgage borrowers.
• Thirty-five percent of minority borrowers say they are making a great deal of financial sacrifice to own, compared to 20 percent of non-minority borrowers.
• Minority borrowers are more likely than non-minority mortgage holders to live in states with above-average levels of negative equity and are more likely to report lower family household incomes (44 percent say their family income in 2010 did not exceed $50,000, compared to 23 percent of non-minority borrowers).

The Fannie Mae Second-Quarter 2011 National Housing Survey polled homeowners and renters to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, confidence in homeownership as an investment, the current state of their household finances, views on the U.S. housing finance system, and overall confidence in the economy.

Duncan states, "Survey data make clear the relationship between home purchase demand and concerns about the stability of employment. Dissatisfaction about the direction of the economy and related employment fears are damping demand to buy homes and slowing the recovery. People who believe owning is a better deal than renting are nonetheless planning to rent, at least until things improve it would seem."

Other Survey Highlights

• Consistent with previous findings, most Americans think it would be difficult for them to get a home mortgage today (53 percent) and increases to 71 percent among renters.
• While 51 percent of Generation X Americans (age 35-44) say it would be difficult for them to get a home mortgage today, the number increases to 59 percent among Generation Y (age 18-34).
• Thirty-five percent of Pre-Baby Boomers (age 65 and older) say they know someone in their area or neighborhood who has defaulted versus 42 percent for Generation Y and 49 percent for Generation X Americans.
• Twenty-six percent of mortgage borrowers say they are underwater, compared with 23 percent in Q1.
• Underwater borrowers remain more likely to be stressed about their debt than all mortgage borrowers—42 percent of underwater borrowers say they are stressed about their debt, compared to 31 percent of all mortgage borrowers.
• Underwater borrowers are more likely to know someone who has defaulted on their mortgage—57 percent of underwater borrowers versus 49 percent of all mortgage borrowers and 43 percent of the general population.
• As in previous quarters, 2 out of 3 respondents support mortgage modifications, believing such programs help protect the economy and local communities from increased foreclosures and falling home prices.
• In line with previous quarters, 57 percent of Generation Y Americans (age 18-34) expect their personal situation to improve over the next year, compared to only 42 percent among Generation X (age 35-44) and 35 percent among Baby Boomers (age 45-64).

Builder Confidence Unchanged in August

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged at a low level of 15 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for August, released today.

"Builders continue to confront the same major challenges they have seen over the past year, including competition from the large inventory of distressed homes on the market, inaccurate appraisal values, and issues with their buyers not being able to sell an existing home or qualify for favorable mortgage rates because of overly tight underwriting requirements," said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. He noted that 41 percent of respondents to a special questions section of the HMI indicated they had lost sales contracts due to buyers' inability to sell their current homes.

"The uncertain economic climate and concerns about job security are discouraging many potential buyers from exploring a home purchase at this time," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "While buying conditions are very favorable in terms of prices, interest rates and selection, consumers are worried about what the future will bring, and builders are echoing those sentiments in their responses to the HMI survey."

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two out of three of the HMI's component indexes posted marginal gains in August. The component gauging current sales conditions gained one point to 16 – its highest level since March of this year – and the component gauging traffic of prospect buyers rose one point to 13 following two consecutive months at 12. However, the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined two points to 19, partially offsetting a six-point gain from the last month's revised number.

Regionally, the HMI results were mixed in August. While the Northeast posted a four-point gain to 19, the West registered a one-point gain to 15, the South held even at 17 and the Midwest posted a two-point decline, to 10.