S&P: Dallas Home Prices Bottomed in 2009

Data through June 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index increased by 3.6 percent in the second quarter of 2011, after having fallen 4.1 percent in the first quarter of 2011. With the second quarter’s data, the National Index recovered from its first quarter low, but still posted an annual decline of 5.9 percent versus the second quarter of 2010. 

Nationally, home prices are back to their early 2003 levels. 

As of June 2011, 19 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were up versus May – Portland was flat. However, they were all down compared to June 2010. Twelve of the 20 MSAs and both Composites have now increased for three consecutive months, a  sign of the seasonal strength in the housing market. None of the markets posted new lows with June’s report. 

Minneapolis posted a double-digit 10.8 percent annual decline; Portland is not far behind at -9.6 percent. Thirteen of the cities and both composites saw improvements in their annual rates; however; they all are in negative territory and have been so for three consecutive months.

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.9 percent decline in the second quarter of 2011 over the second quarter of 2010. In June, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 3.8 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. Thirteen of the 20 MSAs and both monthly Composites saw their annual growth rates improve, although remaining in negative territory in June.

“This month’s report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices. No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6%

from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9 percent compared to a year-ago,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. 

“Looking across the cities, eight bottomed in 2009 and have remained above their lows. These include all the California cities plus Dallas, Denver and Washington DC, all relatively strong markets. At the other extreme, those which set new lows in 2011 include the four Sunbelt cities – Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa – as well as the weakest of all, Detroit.

These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together.

“As with May’s report, June showed unusually large revisions across the same MSAs – Detroit, New York, Tampa and Washington DC. Our sales pairs data indicate that, once again, these markets reported a lot more sales closing in prior months, which caused the revisions. Since deed recording is usually county based, if the price trends across counties are very different, then delays from a subset of counties can lead to larger revisions. And data lag lengths tend to vary across the counties within a metro area. If counties with relatively stronger/weaker markets report sales with longer/shorter lags, this will result in larger revisions as we receive the lagged data. Revisions are also likely to be larger when sales volumes are low or the proportions of distressed/non-distressed sales are changing rapidly. Any and all of these factors are likely contributing to the revisions we have seen over the past few reports.

Despite Recent Declines, Home Prices Expected to Stabilize Across U.S. by Early Next Year

Fiserv, Inc. recently released an analysis of home price trends in more than 380 U.S. markets based on the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. The indexes are owned and generated by Fiserv, the leading global provider of financial services technology solutions, and data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

The double-dip drop in home prices that began last year continued into the first quarter of 2011, with prices falling in 302 out of 384 metro areas tracked by Fiserv Case-Shiller. The decrease, an average of 5.1 percent as compared to the first quarter of last year, was expected, as housing demand settled to a lower level following last summer's expiration of the home buyer tax credit. Price declines in the recent quarter were also driven by a jump in foreclosure sales, which were temporarily stalled by loan processing issues that surfaced at the end of 2010.

David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv, noted that continued economic weakness and uncertainty continue to weigh on markets. "The stabilization of housing markets depends greatly on household confidence in the strength of the economic recovery," he said. "Unfortunately, recent economic news has done little to build confidence. Weak job growth numbers in May and June, political wrangling over the Federal government debt ceiling, and the ongoing debt crisis in Europe have all increased pessimism. Households will not become more optimistic about housing markets until they are convinced that the job market is improving and that politicians will not allow debt problems to become new economic catastrophes."

Despite the weakness in housing markets, which remain a problem in nearly every region, Fiserv continues to project that home prices remain on track to stabilize by the end of 2012.

Stiff pointed to several positive trends. "Mortgage delinquency rates have been falling for more than a year. Foreclosure rates have started to decline. The flood of bank-owned sales, which has swamped many markets, will finally begin to recede this year as fewer houses enter the foreclosure pipeline. Meanwhile, housing affordability has nearly returned to pre-bubble levels," said Stiff. "Relative to family income levels, the average U.S. home is now only 5 percent more expensive than it was in 2000."

According to Fiserv and Moody's Analytics, these factors, when combined with economic growth forecast for the coming quarters, point to a broad-based recovery for housing that will begin in early 2012. Between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, homes are projected to increase by an average of 2.7 percent, with gains in 365 out of 384 metro areas.

Other highlights from the latest Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes include:

• Eight of the 10 worst performing markets in the 2011 first quarter had unemployment rates higher than the national average.
• Five of the 10 best performing housing markets in the last five years are in Texas, where the Midland and Odessa Metropolitan areas have seen house prices grow 42 percent and 30.3 percent, respectively, from the 2006 first quarter to the 2011 first quarter.
• The outlook for Florida is a study in contrasts. Four of the 10 metro areas where home prices are projected to grow the most between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 are in Florida (Ocala; Palm Coast; Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach; Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville). But the state is also home to six of the 10 markets projected to suffer the biggest home price declines over the same time period (Miami-Miami Beach, Kendall; Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach; Naples-Marco Island; Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin; Gainesville; Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford).
• Four metro areas in Washington State (Tacoma; Kennewick-Pasco-Richland; Spokane; Olympia) are in the 10 markets projected to experience the highest home price increases for the 2011 first quarter to 2012 first quarter period.
• Six of the 10 markets that have suffered the greatest price declines from peak to the first quarter of 2011 are in California (Merced; Modesto; Salinas; Stockton; Vallejo-Fairfield; Bakersfield-Delano).