Dallas Fed: Texas Housing Starts Rise

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the Texas economy continues to expand, although at a slow pace, with employment growing at a 0.1 percent annual rate in September. Texas home sales fell in September, but single-family permits and housing starts rose. Texas exports inched up in August, and manufacturing activity increased in October, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s production index.

Housing starts in Texas rose 13.4 percent in September after falling 0.5 percent in August. September starts were up 24.2 percent from last year. Texas existing-home sales decreased by 2.1 percent in September and are up 11.8 percent year over year. Home inventories remain at 7.1 months. Texas single-family housing permits rose 2.6 percent from August to September.

Home Prices Rise, Again

Data through August 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed increases of +0.2 percent for the 10- and 20-City Composites in August versus July.

Ten of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices increase over the month. In addition, 16 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted improved annual returns compared to July’s data; Los Angeles and Miami saw no change in annual returns in August; and Atlanta and Las Vegas saw their annual rates of change fall deeper into negative territory. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of -3.5 percent and -3.8 percent versus August 2010, respectively. At -8.5 percent, Minneapolis posted the lowest year-over-year return, but has
improved in each of the last three months. Detroit and Washington DC were the only two cities to post positive annual returns of +2.7% and +0.3% respectively.

In August 2011, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -3.5 percent and -3.8 percent, respectively. Both Composites and 16 MSAs – Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington DC – saw their annual rates improve in August compared to July.

“There was some weakness in the monthly statistics, as 10 of the cities post price declines in August over July,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “And even though the annual rates are largely improving, 18 MSAs and both Composites are still negative. Nationally, home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.5 percent and the 20-City is down 3.8 percent compared to August 2010.

Dallas Landmark For Sale

Texas' most legendary estate, Mount Vernon at 4009 Lawther Drive, has been listed for sale by Allie Beth Allman, founder and CEO of Dallas-based Allie Beth Allman and Associates. This historic home has had only three owners. It rests on 10 acres overlooking White Rock Lake. With its extraordinary views and impeccable grounds, it is truly an irreplaceable residence.

January, 1938, legendary oilman H.L. Hunt moved into the neoclassical Georgian home built in 1930. Additions during the six epochal decades of the Hunt family included air conditioning, one of Dallas' first residential swimming pools, pool house, tennis courts, guest house and garage. Ever the visionaries, the Hunts planted specimen live oak and pecan trees, that continue to provide grace and splendor to the property all these years later.

Current owners John and Teresa Amend began total and meticulous renovation of the main house and outbuildings in 2000, completing the extensive project in 2002. With the vision of creating an unmatched versatile site for entertaining on any scale, a new two story guest house and showroom garage were also built. And in 2004, a spectacular bowling center was added on the grounds.

The warm and inviting fourteen room manor comprises approximately 10,500 square feet plus a 2,700 square foot basement with controlled wine storage, large laundry area, and an expansive storage area, served by the mansion's elevator.

A few feet north of the main house, the charming 4,200 square foot two-story guest house has a media room, separate wine tasting and dining room on the first level, four bedrooms with baths and full kitchen on the second floor.

Adjacent to the guest house, is a 5,000 square foot air conditioned showroom garage and event venue. Styled as a carriage house and designed with cathedral ceilings, this event center features scored, stained and buffed concrete floors, with capacity for 16 vehicles or seated dining for 250 guests as well as two collapsible and removable NCAA glass basketball goals. Upon completion of the estate renovation in 2002, the Dallas Historical Society hosted a black tie seated dinner in the new carriage house, where members of the Hunt family shared their memories of Dallas' most famous home.

West of the main house, a wide stone walkway leads past the lighted tennis courts to a 1,200 square foot pool house. The shared patio has an outdoor kitchen with grill, large fireplace and professional wood fired Renato pizza oven.

Next to the pool house is the incredible 5,000 square foot bowling center, among the largest, private professionally equipped centers in the nation. Built with guidance from the Brunswick Corporation, this fabulous entertainment venue has four regulation lanes, state of the art automatic pin setters and electronic scoring, multiple flat screen televisions, and a digital photo-booth. Additional amenities include two Enomatic four bottle Argon gas wine dispensers and a Touchtunes digital jukebox, currently with over 500,000 songs available through a concert hall quality sound system - two firsts in private residential installations. Over 400 events have been held in this popular and unique venue.

Following its inaugural opening event in 2004, Dallas retail legend Neiman Marcus sought permission to feature the unique bowling facility as the exceptionally exclusive and highly publicized "His and Hers" gift in their famed Christmas catalog. Neiman Marcus then chose Mt. Vernon as the host site for its spectacular Christmas Wish Book launch event.

The pool area, with an expansive limestone deck, is another fabulous picturesque setting for entertaining or relaxing. Bordering the pool site are a putting green, limestone fireplace and a romantic gazebo.

"The original Mount Vernon in Virginia is the most popular historic estate in the United States," said Ms. Allman. "This larger replica is among Dallas' and Texas' preeminent estates - and rightfully so. Many tales from the nation's mythological oil industry originated within these walls."

The current owners' enduring commitment to tradition and quality means that essential elements of the original structure remain, including foot-thick concrete walls, marble fireplaces and murals, while daily comfort is assured with technology and amenities for the next century. With its majestic unobstructed view of landmark White Rock Lake, the setting and tradition are irreplaceable.

Allie Beth Allman and Associates is recognized as the leading single office residential real estate firm in Dallas County, with the top position in listings and sales for 2010, including million dollar-plus homes. In 2010, the firm sold 55 percent of the million-plus dollar homes in Dallas. The firm accomplished Dallas' seven largest single residential transactions in 2010. Allie Beth Allman is known for high profile clients and upscale transactions, including the two largest single residential deals in Dallas history.

Mortgage Applications Up 1.3 Percent

Mortgage applications increased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 7, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1.3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1.2 percent compared with the previous week and was 2.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The increases were driven mainly by the government loan category, with the Government Purchase index up 2.4 percent and Government Refinance index increasing 9.9 percent. The Conventional Purchase and Refinance indexes increased 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.56 percent. The four week moving average is down 0.51 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 2.15 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 79.1 percent of total applications from the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.0 percent from 6.4 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average loan size of all loans for home purchase in the US was $210,863 in September 2011, down from $212,736 in August 2011. The average loan size for a refinance was $237,632, down from $241,323 in August. The largest purchase loans were made in the Pacific region at $ 302,110. The largest refinance loans were also made in the Pacific region at $ 339,592.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.25 percent from 4.18 percent, with points increasing to 0.47 from 0.44(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) increased to 4.59 percent from 4.49 percent, with points increasing to 0.49 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.06 percent from 4.05 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.53 percent from 3.49 percent, with points remaining unchanged from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.03 percent from 3.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.54 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

Home Values Tread Water, Dallas Remains Flat in August

Home values in the United States showed minimal monthly appreciation in August of 2011, according to the Zillow® Real Estate Market Report(i). The Zillow Home Value Index(ii) increased 0.1 percent from July to August. On a year-over-year basis home values declined 4.5 percent to $172,600. Home values have fallen 28.3 percent since they peaked in June 2006.

Regionally, 68 of the 157 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) covered by Zillow experienced monthly home value appreciation, though minimal in many areas. Most notably, two of the hardest hit markets, Detroit and Ft. Myers, Fla., have now seen five and nine consecutive months of appreciation, respectively. Seventy-four markets saw home value depreciation and 15 markets, including Los Angeles, Dallas and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., remained flat.

The foreclosure liquidation rate, which measures the number of homes lost to the bank, stayed steady at around 9.2 out of every 10,000 homes foreclosed in August. This is down from the rate of 10.9 out of every 10,000 homes in October 2010, before the robo-signing lawsuits slowed the pace of foreclosures in most states. However, foreclosure liquidations remained high in many of the hardest hit metros in California, Nevada, and Arizona. In Las Vegas and Phoenix more than 30 out of every 10,000 homes were liquidated in August.

"Due to the robo-signing controversy, the pace of foreclosure liquidations has been slower than it would be otherwise, which is impacting home value trends positively. Eventually the pace will pick up again, putting more bank-owned homes into local markets and putting additional downward pressure on prices," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "We remain encouraged about the organic stabilization in home values that we have been seeing absent the federal home buyer tax credits, but we remain concerned about the impact that recent economic turmoil and continued weak economic indicators will have on future home sales and home value trends."

"At this point, we maintain the expectation that a definitive bottom will not occur until 2012 at the earliest."

2010 Census Shows Second Highest Homeownership Rate on Record Despite Largest Decrease since 1940

Texas has 22.3 percent increase.

The U.S. Census Bureau today released a 2010 Census brief, Housing Characteristics: 2010, that shows the homeownership rate is the second highest on record, behind only 2000, since homeownership data collection began in 1890. However, the rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 65.1 percent between 2000 and 2010. The decrease is the largest since the period from 1930 to 1940.

Housing Inventory Grew the Most in South and West

The national housing inventory increased by 15.8 million units, or 13.6 percent, from 2000 to 2010. The housing inventory increased in all states during the decade but grew faster in the South and West than in the Midwest and Northeast. The South grew 17.9 percent to 50.0 million units and the West grew 17.3 percent to 28.6 million units. In contrast, the Midwest grew by 9.3 percent to 29.5 million units and the Northeast grew by 6.6 percent to 23.6 million units.

All of the states with the largest percentage increases in housing units were in either the West or the South: Nevada (41.9 percent), Arizona (29.9 percent), Utah (27.5 percent), Idaho (26.5 percent), Georgia (24.6 percent), Florida (23.1 percent), North Carolina (22.8 percent), Colorado (22.4 percent), Texas (22.3 percent) and South Carolina (21.9 percent).

No states in either the Midwest or the Northeast experienced a percentage change in housing inventory greater than the national increase of 13.6 percent. In the Northeast, housing units in Pennsylvania (6.0 percent), New York (5.6 percent) and Rhode Island (5.4 percent) increased less than both the nation and the Northeast as a whole (6.6 percent). West Virginia had the lowest percentage increase of any state at 4.4 percent.

Metro Areas Have More Homeowners while Major Cities Have More Renters

As a percentage of the entire national inventory, more than a third of all owner-occupied homes (38.3 percent) and renter-occupied homes (35.6 percent) were in the South. The homeownership rate in the Midwest was 69.2 percent, followed by the South (66.7 percent), the Northeast (62.2 percent) and the West (60.5 percent). Homeownership rates decreased in each region from 2000 to 2010.

West Virginia (73.4 percent) and Minnesota (73.0 percent) had the highest homeownership rates in 2010 as well as 2000. The states with the next highest homeownership rates in 2010 were Michigan (72.1 percent), Iowa (72.1 percent), and Delaware (72.1 percent). As in 2000, New York had the lowest percentage of homeowners at 53.3 percent.

All but one metropolitan area had more homeowners than renters in 2010. With a homeownership rate of 49.5 percent, Manhattan, Kan., was the only metro area where renters outnumbered homeowners. In 2000, five metro areas had more renters than homeowners.

The metro areas with the highest homeownership rates can be found primarily in Michigan and Florida, where each had three metro areas in the top 10. Monroe, Mich., had the highest percentage of owner-occupied units at 79.8 percent, followed by Punta Gorda, Fla. (79.7 percent), Holland-Grand Haven, Mich. (78.2 percent), Bay City, Mich. (77.8 percent) and Barnstable, Mass. (77.4 percent).

While homeowners were the majority in most of the nation's metro areas, they were outnumbered by renters in many of the country's largest cities, including the four most populous cities. This was similar to 2000. In New York, renters made up 69.0 percent of households, followed by Los Angeles (61.8 percent), Chicago (55. 1 percent) and Houston (54.6 percent).

Similar to metro areas, homeowners were the majority in most of the nation's counties. Homeowners outnumbered renters in all but 1.5 percent of the 3,143 counties and equivalent areas in the country. The counties with the highest homeownership rates were Keweenaw County, Mich. (89.8 percent), Sumter County, Fla. (89.7 percent), Alcona County, Mich. (89.6 percent), Morgan County, Utah (89.1 percent) and Powhatan County, Va. (88.5 percent).

Despite most counties having a majority of homeowners, many saw a decrease in the homeownership rate and an increase in renter occupancy. The largest percentage point increases in renter occupancy were in Loving County, Texas (19.8), Manassas Park, Va. (13.2), and Madison County, Idaho (10.9). Only 14 counties had more than a 5 percentage point increase in their homeownership rates.

Every region and all but three states experienced a percentage point increase in their gross vacancy rate during the decade. Nevada led all states with both the largest percent increase in total housing units and the largest percentage point increase in the gross vacancy rate. Only three states, New Mexico (-0.9), Wyoming (-0.2) and Hawaii (-0.1), experienced a decrease in their gross vacancy rates.

Vacant Units

Many of the states with the highest homeowner vacancy rates also had the highest rental vacancy rates in 2010. The homeowner vacancy rate is the proportion of homeowner inventory that is unoccupied and "for sale," and the rental vacancy rate is the proportion of the rental inventory that is unoccupied and "for rent." Of the top 10 states with the highest homeowner vacancy rates, eight were also in the top 10 for rental vacancies: Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and South Carolina.

Data on vacant units and homeownership rates are collected for several different Census Bureau surveys in addition to the 2010 Census, including the Housing Vacancy Survey and the American Community Survey. Noticeable differences in results occur because of differences in data collection methods. For example, the 2010 Census measured occupancy status as of April 1, 2010, while other surveys measure the status of a sampling of units at the time a field representative conducts the interview.

New Survey: Homeowners Expect Declines

One an almost certain retirement vehicle, Rasmussen Reports has released the results of a national telephone survey shows that 40 percent of U.S. homeowners now expect their home’s value to go down over the next year-- the highest level of pessimism to date.

Just 13 percent expect the value of their home to go up over the next year. In the longer-term, there's a bit more optimism. Thirty-six percent expect their home’s value will go up during the next five years

The survey of 753 Homeowners was conducted on September 15-16, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports.