New Survey: Homeowners Expect Declines

One an almost certain retirement vehicle, Rasmussen Reports has released the results of a national telephone survey shows that 40 percent of U.S. homeowners now expect their home’s value to go down over the next year-- the highest level of pessimism to date.

Just 13 percent expect the value of their home to go up over the next year. In the longer-term, there's a bit more optimism. Thirty-six percent expect their home’s value will go up during the next five years

The survey of 753 Homeowners was conducted on September 15-16, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports.

Fannie Mae Survey Finds More Americans Will Rent

Fannie Mae's July national consumer attitudinal survey finds that Americans' attitudes about the economy, household finances, and homeownership are growing more pessimistic – with 70 percent of Americans believing that the economy is moving in the wrong direction, while only 23 percent think the economy is moving in the right direction. Key indicators show that more consumers across the country have diminished expectations for home prices and their personal finances, more are thinking about renting as a next step, and twice as many are reporting significantly higher expenses than incomes.

“The impact of recent financial market volatility on household wealth has been a setback to consumer confidence, which we’re seeing in our survey results and in Americans’ continued restraint in their willingness to take on additional financial commitments,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “Our overall July survey data, beyond the eleven indicators we present this month, show that most Americans think the economy is on the wrong track – the highest level of pessimism to date for this topic. The sluggish pace of job growth, coupled with this economic uncertainty, is clearly having an impact on consumers’ attitudes toward the housing market and their own personal financial situations.”

The survey found on average and consistent with June, Americans believe home prices will decline slightly over the next year. Only 11 percent of respondents say it is a good time to sell one’s home (similar to May and June 2011 survey results). Despite Americans’ expectations that rental prices will go up in the next 12 months, fewer Americans say they would buy their next home (down 5 percentage points) and more of those surveyed say they would rent (up by 3 percentage points).

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 22, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4.9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5.5 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 2.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.3 percent. The four week moving average is down 0.5 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 0.3 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 69.6 percent of total applications from 70.1 percent the previous week.

The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.1 percent from 5.8 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.57 percent from 4.54 percent, with points increasing to 1.14 from 0.98 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.67 percent from 3.66 percent, with points increasing to 1.08 from 0.97 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

Seven Out of 10 Renters Say Owning a Home is a Top Priority

Most Americans still believe that owning a home is a solid financial decision, and a majority of renters aspire to home ownership as a long-term goal. According to the 2011 National Housing Pulse Survey released today by the National Association of Realtors, 72 percent of renters surveyed said owning a home is a top priority for their future, up from 63 percent in 2010.

Seven in 10 Americans also agreed that buying a home is a good financial decision while almost two-thirds said now is a good time to purchase a home. The annual survey, which measures how affordable housing issues affect consumers, also found that more than three quarters of renters (77 percent) said they would be less likely to buy a home if they were required to put down a 20 percent down payment on the home, and a strong majority (71 percent) believe a 20 percent down payment requirement could have a negative impact on the housing market.

“Despite the economic setbacks Americans have experienced in today’s current climate, it is clear that a strong majority still believe in home ownership and aspire to own a home,” said NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I. “However, achieving the dream of home ownership will become increasingly difficult for buyers if they are required to make a 20 percent down payment, which may be a reality for many of tomorrow’s buyers if a proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule is adopted. That is why Realtors are strongly urging regulators to go back to the drawing board on the proposed rule.”

Defining the QRM rule is important because it will determine the types of mortgages that will generally be available to borrowers in the future. As currently proposed, borrowers with less than 20 percent down will have to choose between higher fees and rates today – up to 3 percentage points more – or a 9-14 year delay while they save up the necessary down payment.

Over half – 51 percent – of self-described “working class” home owners as well as younger non-college graduates (51 percent), African Americans (57 percent) and Hispanics (50 percent) who currently own their homes reported that a 20 percent down payment would have prevented them from becoming home owners.

Pulse surveys for the past eight years have consistently reported that having enough money for a down payment and closing costs are top obstacles that make housing unaffordable for Americans. Eighty-two percent of respondents cited these as the top obstacle, followed by having confidence in one’s job security.

The survey also found respondents were adamantly against eliminating the mortgage interest deduction. Two-thirds of Americans oppose eliminating the tax benefit, while 73 percent believe eliminating the MID will have a negative impact on the housing market as well as the overall economy.

“The MID facilitates home ownership by reducing the carrying costs of owning a home, and it makes a real difference to hard-working American families,” said Phipps. “Home ownership offers not only social benefits, but also long-term value for families, communities and the nation’s economy. We need to make sure that any changes to current programs or incentives don’t jeopardize our collective futures.”

When asked why home ownership matters to them, respondents cited stability and safety as the top reason. Long-term economic reasons such as building equity followed closely behind. On a local level, respondents said neighbors falling behind on their mortgages and the drop in home values were top concerns. Foreclosures also continue to remain a large concern, with almost half of those surveyed citing the issue as a problem in their area.

The 2011 National Housing Pulse Survey is conducted by American Strategies and Myers Research & Strategic Services for NAR’s Housing Opportunity Program. The telephone survey polled 1,250 adults nationwide, with an oversample of interviews of those living in the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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