Mortgage Applications Up 1.3 Percent

Mortgage applications increased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 7, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1.3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1.2 percent compared with the previous week and was 2.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The increases were driven mainly by the government loan category, with the Government Purchase index up 2.4 percent and Government Refinance index increasing 9.9 percent. The Conventional Purchase and Refinance indexes increased 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.56 percent. The four week moving average is down 0.51 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 2.15 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 79.1 percent of total applications from the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.0 percent from 6.4 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average loan size of all loans for home purchase in the US was $210,863 in September 2011, down from $212,736 in August 2011. The average loan size for a refinance was $237,632, down from $241,323 in August. The largest purchase loans were made in the Pacific region at $ 302,110. The largest refinance loans were also made in the Pacific region at $ 339,592.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.25 percent from 4.18 percent, with points increasing to 0.47 from 0.44(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) increased to 4.59 percent from 4.49 percent, with points increasing to 0.49 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.06 percent from 4.05 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.53 percent from 3.49 percent, with points remaining unchanged from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.03 percent from 3.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.54 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

MBA Says Mortgage Applications Increased

Mortgage applications increased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 12, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.5 percent lower than a year ago. The Refinance Index increased 8.0 percent from the previous week, but was 16.3 percent lower than the same week last year. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 10.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 1.1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Unprecedented volatility in the stock market last week amid additional signs that the economy has slowed led to further drops in mortgage rates, with the 15-year rate reaching a new low for the MBA survey,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Purchase application activity fell sharply over the previous week, likely the result of potential homebuyers hesitant to purchase in this highly volatile and uncertain environment.”

Fratantoni continued, “Refinance application volume increased substantially for the week, although there was substantial variation across the market. In September MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey will transition to an expanded sample that covers 75 percent of the retail market rather than the current sample that covers roughly 50 percent of the retail market. That expanded sample showed a significantly larger increase in refinance applications than the current sample, with some lenders reporting increases in refinance applications in excess of 50 percent for the week. The big differences in refinance volumes were likely driven by the decisions of some lenders not to drop rates last week, largely due to the need to manage their pipelines.”

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 6.9 percent. The four week moving average is down 2.2 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 10.1 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 78.8 percent of total applications from 75.6 percent the previous week, the highest the refinance share has been since November 2010. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.32 percent from 4.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.87 from 1.07 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week. The 30-year fixed contract rate has decreased for three straight weeks and is at a new low for this year.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.47 percent from 3.52 percent, with points increasing to 1.08 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week. The 15-year contract rate is at lowest level in the history of this survey.

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Lending Up 107 Percent from Last Year

Second quarter 2011 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 107 percent higher than during the same period last year and 52 percent higher than the revised figures for the first quarter of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.

“Commercial/multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending continues to rise from the depths of 2009 and 2010,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Greater stability in property fundamentals and prices, and an improving sales market, are providing greater clarity for borrowers and lenders alike. Property values and interest rates – coupled with job growth, consumer spending, household growth and other macro-economic trends that drive demand for commercial real estate – will be keys to how property owners seek and qualify for mortgage financing going forward.”

Second Quarter 2011 Originations 107 Percent Higher than Second Quarter 2010

The 107 percent overall increase in commercial/multifamily lending activity during the second quarter of 2011 was driven by increases in originations for all property types. When compared to the second quarter of 2010, the increase included a 141 percent increase in loans for health care properties, a 125 percent increase in loans for hotel properties, a 116 percent increase in loans for retail properties, a 114 percent increase in loans for multifamily properties, a 54 percent increase in office property loans, and a 34 percent increase in industrial property loans.

Among investor types, loans for conduits for CMBS saw an increase of 638 percent compared to last year’s second quarter. There was also a 150 percent increase in loans for commercial bank portfolios, an 87 percent increase in loans for life insurance companies, and a 58 percent increase in loans for Government Sponsored Enterprises (or GSEs – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).

Second Quarter 2011 Originations 52 Percent Higher than First Quarter 2011

Second quarter 2011 commercial/multifamily mortgage originations were 52 percent higher than revised originations in the first quarter of 2011. Compared to the first quarter, second quarter originations for health care properties saw a 161 percent increase. There was an 87 percent increase for hotel properties, a 73 percent increase for retail properties, a 47 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 31 percent increase for office properties, and a six percent increase for industrial properties.

Among investor types, loans for conduits for CMBS saw an increase in loan volume of 210 percent compared to the first quarter, loans for commercial bank portfolios saw an increase in loan volume of 41 percent compared to the first quarter, originations for life insurance companies increased 37 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2011, and loans for GSEs increased by 20 percent during the same time span.

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 22, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4.9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5.5 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 2.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.3 percent. The four week moving average is down 0.5 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 0.3 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 69.6 percent of total applications from 70.1 percent the previous week.

The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.1 percent from 5.8 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.57 percent from 4.54 percent, with points increasing to 1.14 from 0.98 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.67 percent from 3.66 percent, with points increasing to 1.08 from 0.97 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

Mortgage Bankers Say Homeownership Rates Could Drop Further After "Unsustainable Jump" During Last Decade

The drop in the homeownership rate from an all-time high of 69.2 percent in 2004 to 66.4 percent in the first quarter of 2011 reflects a decline from unsustainable levels to something closer to historical averages, according to a study released today by MBA's Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA). While the homeownership rate may have bottomed out, it could fall another one or two percentage points because of tightened credit and other factors, the paper says.

Titled "Homeownership Boom and Bust 2000 to 2009: Where Will the Homeownership Rate Go from Here?," the study was conducted by professors Stuart Gabriel of UCLA's Anderson School and Stuart Rosenthal of Syracuse University. They found that the increase in the homeownership rate in the middle of the last decade extended to all age groups but was most pronounced among individuals under age 30. These increases coincided with looser credit conditions that enhanced household access to mortgage credit, along with less risk-averse attitudes toward investment in homeownership. Following the crash, these trends have reversed and homeownership rates have largely reverted to the levels of 2000.

"The question of why homeownership rates are falling now is really a question of why they were so high during the middle of the last decade," said Gabriel. "From the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, U.S. homeownership rates were relatively stable between 64 and 65 percent. Our findings suggest that the boom and bust in homeownership rates over the last decade was driven in part by an initial relaxation of credit standards followed by a tightening of credit with the onset of the 2007 financial crash. Evidence also suggests that households headed by people in their 20s and 30s were willing to take more risk with respect to homeownership in the boom years, followed by a return to a more conservative approach after the crash."

"How much more might the homeownership rate fall? The answer depends on uncertain forecasts of attitudes towards homeownership and changes in the credit market and economic conditions," concluded Rosenthal. "If underwriting conditions and attitudes about investing in homeownership settle back to year-2000 patterns and, if the socioeconomic and demographic traits of the population look similar to those of 2000, then the homeownership rate may have bottomed out and will not decline further. If, instead, household employment, earnings and other socioeconomic characteristics over the next few years remain similar to those in 2009, then homeownership rates could fall by up to another 1 to 2 percentage points beyond 2011. Those declines are likely to be greatest in cities and regions in which house prices were most volatile in the last decade."

Key findings from the study include:

-A combination of changes in mortgage credit standards and attitudes towards investment in homeownership likely contributed to much of the boom and bust in homeownership over the decade. As credit conditions loosened in the first part of the decade, many people of all ages who would have remained renters instead became homeowners. With the financial crash, the recession, and tighter credit conditions, homeownership rates have fallen back to levels close to those of 2000 for most age groups.

-Changes in the population's socio-demographic composition and economic attributes also served to lower homeownership rates between 2000 and 2009. For all household heads age 20 to 80, demographic-socioeconomic shifts pushed homeownership rates down by roughly 2 additional percentage points over the period. These effects were notably different across demographic groups, however. For example, among individuals 25-35 years old, shifts in their demographic-socioeconomic attributes pushed homeownership rates down by nearly 5 percentage points over the 2000-2009 period. For African Americans the analogous value was only roughly 1 percentage point.

-Individuals appear to have been more risk-seeking in their approach to home buying in the first half of the last decade. This changed to a more risk-averse posture following the real estate meltdown.

-Between 2000 and 2009 there was a one percentage point increase in the homeownership rate. But, were it not for the shifts in access to homeownership through easier credit and the changes in socioeconomic conditions, the homeownership rate would have actually fallen between 2000 and 2005, rather than increasing.

-Homeownership is deeply embedded in American culture and long has been a symbol of economic achievement in the United States. The recent sharp decline in the homeownership rate has symbolic as well as tangible adverse effects on the economy, with home sales and construction activity remaining near all-time lows," said Michael Fratantoni, Executive Director of RIHA and MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "This is another in a series of studies that RIHA has issued on the issues of household formation, borrower attitudes after the recession and homeownership. Single- and multifamily lenders, other participants in the real estate finance industry, and policymakers can utilize this research and assumptions on homebuyer behavior and credit availability to form their own forecasts regarding the likely path of the homeownership rate and implications for the mortgage market going forward."

The paper relies on individual-level data from the 2000 census and the 2005 and 2009 American Community Surveys (ACS) to assess housing choice and uses 34 control variables to analyze the underlying drivers of homeownership. The paper is divided into three parts: an assessment of the underlying drivers of homeownership, an ex-post analysis of the boom and bust in homeownership during the 2000s, and a discussion of what may lie ahead for U.S. homeownership rates.