Luxury Home Sales Outperform Others

Gloomy news that July sales of existing homes dropped 25.5 percent year-over-year has overshadowed new statistics showing summer sales of million dollar plus homes significantly outperformed other price ranges.

“Luxury homebuyers have been buying this summer,” said Laurie Moore-Moore, CEO of The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing (ILHM). “After waiting in the wings, many affluent buyers spent the summer shopping for value and snapping up trophy properties.”

Statistics would indicate that she’s right. According to The National Association of Realtors (NAR), for 2009 million-dollar and above home sales were just 1.2 percent of total sales or about 61,500 sales nationally. In July 2010, million dollar plus market share was up to 1.9 percent. While sales of homes in the $500,000 and above range rose dramatically in June, the million-dollar-plus market segment was the only price range in July showing positive growth compared to last year. “The mix of what is selling has shifted in favor of homes priced at $750 and above,” added Moore-Moore.

NAR’s report that July’s median sales price increased 0.7 percent  year-over-year may be more a function of increasing sales of expensive properties relative to other price ranges than an indicator of across-the-board home price appreciation.

According to the ILHM National Luxury Market Report -- which does a weekly analysis of luxury homes for sale in more than 30 major markets -- after a dramatic rise in upper-tier inventory, which started in January of this year, the numbers of luxury homes for sale has declined about 5 percent  since the beginning of July. Along with a decrease in inventory, there has been a decline in asking prices. Forty three percent of luxury homes currently on the market have had at least one reduction in asking price over the last 90 days. An additional 19 percent  have been pulled off the market and subsequently re-listed.

“While I wouldn’t say the luxury market is in recovery,” said Moore-Moore, “ the growing market share of luxury sales relative to total sales, a slight downward trend in inventory, and sellers who are more realistic about price are factors shifting the affluent into a buying mode.”

More News On the Souring Taste for Homeownership

Two more items have appeared in the expanding parade of articles that appear to be mounting evidence that the importance placed on owning a home just isn't what it used to be. The latest Housing Market Insights report from Morgan Stanley indicates high rates of mortgage delinquency, foreclosures and liquidations are turning homeowners into renters. In addition a Treasury Department White Paper spells out that it the role of the Federal Government in the housing market is changing from increasing the number of homeowners to providing housing options.

This appears to be playing out in the marketplace. A separate new report from housing search engine HotPads indicates prices on rental properties grew 6.7 percent in June.

Morgan Stanley analysts expect the trends to continue. They say GSE reform, Dodd-Frank securitization rules, mortgage interest deduction reform, continued home price declines and a long workout period for distressed homes, will likely make it harder to buy an owner-occupied home.

"As such, we believe that the U.S. will become a Rentership Society, in which the homeownership rate will keep falling, the home rentership rate will conversely rise, and the rental market will dominate the investment landscape in housing for years to come."

June Existing-Home Sales Slip Nationally, Improve in Texas Cities

Existing-home sales eased nationally in June as contract cancellations spiked unexpectedly, although prices were up slightly, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The numbers were better in the Dallas Metro with the median price increasing year-over-year and a .4 percent increase in price and a 3.1 percent increase in sales over June, 2010. I the same period, Houston experienced a 1.6 percent increase in price and a .3 percent drop in sales. San Antonio did the best among Texas Cities cited in the report with a 3.6 percent increase in price and a 1.6 percent increase in sales. 

Sales gains in the Midwest and South were offset by declines in the Northeast and West. Single-family home sales were stable while the condo sector weakened.

Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million in June from 4.81 million in May, and remain 8.8 percent below the 5.23 million unit level in June 2010, which was the scheduled closing deadline for the home buyer tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said this is an uneven recovery. “Home sales had been trending up without a tax stimulus, but a variety of issues are weighing on the market including an unusual spike in contract cancellations in the past month,” he said. “The underlying reason for elevated cancellations is unclear, but with problems including tight credit and low appraisals, 16 percent of NAR members report a sales contract was cancelled in June, up from 4 percent in May, which stands out in contrast with the pattern over the past year.”

Yun cited other factors in the sales performance. “Pending home sales were down in April but up in May, so we may be seeing some of that mix in closed sales for June. However, economic uncertainty and the federal budget debacle may be causing hesitation among some consumers or lenders.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $184,300 in June, up 0.8 percent from June 2010. Distressed homes3 – foreclosures and short sales generally sold at deep discounts – accounted for 30 percent of sales in June, compared with 31 percent in May and 32 percent in June 2010.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.51 percent in June, down from 4.64 percent in May; the rate was 4.74 percent in June 2010.

NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said home sales should be higher. “With record high housing affordability conditions thus far in 2011, we’d normally expect to see stronger home sales,” he said. “Even with job creation below expectations, excessively tight loan standards are keeping many buyers from completing deals. Although proposals being considered in Washington could effectively put more restrictions on lending, some banking executives have hinted that credit may return to more normal, safe standards in the not-too-distant future, but the tardiness of this process is holding back the recovery.”

Phipps added that lower mortgage loan limits, due to go into effect on October 1, already are having an impact. “Some lenders are placing lower loan limits on current contracts in anticipation they may not close before the end of September. As a result, some contracts may be getting cancelled because certain buyers are unwilling or unable to obtain a more costly jumbo mortgage,” he said.

Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 3.3 percent to 3.77 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from a 9.1-month supply in May.

All-cash transactions accounted for 29 percent of sales in June; they were 30 percent in May and 24 percent in June 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.

First-time buyers purchased 31 percent of homes in June, down from 36 percent in May; they were 43 percent in June 2010 when the tax credit was in place. Investors accounted for 19 percent of purchase activity in June, unchanged from May; they were 13 percent in June 2010.

The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were a 50 percent market share in June, up from 45 percent in May, which appears to be a normal seasonal gain.

Single-family home sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million in June, but are 7.4 percent below a 4.58 million pace in June 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $184,600 in June, up 0.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 7.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000 in June from 570,000 in May, and are 18.0 percent below the 646,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $182,300 in June, up 1.8 percent from June 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 5.2 percent to an annual pace of 730,000 in June and are 17.0 percent below June 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $261,000, up 3.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.0 percent in June to a pace of 1.04 million but are 14.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $147,700, down 5.3 percent from June 2010.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 0.5 percent to an annual level of 1.86 million in June but are 5.6 percent below June 2010. The median price in the South was $159,100, down 0.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 1.7 percent to an annual pace of 1.14 million in June and are 2.6 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $240,400, up 9.5 percent from June 2010.

Are There Any Rungs Left on the Housing Ladder?

A new report from PIMCO highlights some of the demographic changes that are helping to swing the preference of Americans from home owners to renters. The report, Are There Any Rungs Left on the Housing Ladder?, suggests graduates with large student loans and older Americans retiring may not hold the idea of owning a home in high esteem. They also simply may not be able to afford it.

Rod Dubitsky, an analyst with PIMCO, says first-time homebuyers are struggling financially and are likely to be long-term renters. At the same time older homeowners are less likely to upgrade into larger homes or invest in second properties. "All of this suggests downsized housing choices — one home instead of two, rent rather than own, smaller place rather than large. These choices could serve to reduce the dollars committed to housing investment," Dubitsky says.

Mayoral Event in East Dallas Focuses on Preservation

Dallas Mayoral candidates David Kunkle and Mike Rawlings will meet again Monday, this time in East Dallas, in a forum focusing on preservation and conservation. The forum is sponsored by Preservation Dallas and the Old Oak Cliff Conservation League. The event will take place at 7:15 at the Cesar Chavez Learning Center, 1710 N. Carroll Street. 

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