Luxury Home Sales Outperform Others

Gloomy news that July sales of existing homes dropped 25.5 percent year-over-year has overshadowed new statistics showing summer sales of million dollar plus homes significantly outperformed other price ranges.

“Luxury homebuyers have been buying this summer,” said Laurie Moore-Moore, CEO of The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing (ILHM). “After waiting in the wings, many affluent buyers spent the summer shopping for value and snapping up trophy properties.”

Statistics would indicate that she’s right. According to The National Association of Realtors (NAR), for 2009 million-dollar and above home sales were just 1.2 percent of total sales or about 61,500 sales nationally. In July 2010, million dollar plus market share was up to 1.9 percent. While sales of homes in the $500,000 and above range rose dramatically in June, the million-dollar-plus market segment was the only price range in July showing positive growth compared to last year. “The mix of what is selling has shifted in favor of homes priced at $750 and above,” added Moore-Moore.

NAR’s report that July’s median sales price increased 0.7 percent  year-over-year may be more a function of increasing sales of expensive properties relative to other price ranges than an indicator of across-the-board home price appreciation.

According to the ILHM National Luxury Market Report -- which does a weekly analysis of luxury homes for sale in more than 30 major markets -- after a dramatic rise in upper-tier inventory, which started in January of this year, the numbers of luxury homes for sale has declined about 5 percent  since the beginning of July. Along with a decrease in inventory, there has been a decline in asking prices. Forty three percent of luxury homes currently on the market have had at least one reduction in asking price over the last 90 days. An additional 19 percent  have been pulled off the market and subsequently re-listed.

“While I wouldn’t say the luxury market is in recovery,” said Moore-Moore, “ the growing market share of luxury sales relative to total sales, a slight downward trend in inventory, and sellers who are more realistic about price are factors shifting the affluent into a buying mode.”

Pending Home Sales Slip in July but Up Strongly From One Year Ago

Pending home sales declined in July but remain well above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. All regions show monthly declines except for the West, which continues to show the highest level of sales contract activity.

The Pending Home Sales Index,  a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 1.3 percent to 89.7 in July from 90.9 in June but is 14.4 percent above the 78.4 index in July 2010. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales activity is underperforming. “The market can easily move into a healthy expansion if mortgage underwriting standards return to normalcy,” he said. “We also need to be mindful that not all sales contracts are leading to closed existing-home sales. Other market frictions need to be addressed, such as assuring that proper comparables are used in appraisal valuations, and streamlining the short sales process.”

The PHSI in the Northeast declined 2.0 percent to 67.5 in July but is 9.7 percent above July 2010. In the Midwest the index slipped 0.8 percent to 79.1 in July but is 18.8 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South fell 4.8 percent to an index of 94.4 but are 9.5 percent higher than July 2010. In the West the index rose 3.6 percent to 110.8 in July and is 20.6 percent above a year ago.

“Looking at pending home sales over a longer span, contract activity over the past three months is fairly comparable to the first three months of the year, and well above the low seen in April,” Yun said. “The underlying factors for improving sales are developing, such as rising rents, record high affordability conditions and investors buying real estate as a future inflation hedge. It is now a question of lending standards and consumers having the necessary confidence to enter the market.”

Existing-Home Sales Down in July but Up Strongly From a Year Ago

Existing-home sales declined in July from an upwardly revised June pace but are notably higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Monthly gains in the Northeast and Midwest were offset by declines in the West and South.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million in July from 4.84 million in June, but are 21.0 percent above the 3.86 million unit pace in July 2010, which was a cyclical low immediately following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is a tug and pull on the market. “Affordability conditions this year have been the most favorable on record dating back to 1970, but many buyers are being held back because banks are offering financing to only the most highly qualified borrowers, ignoring a large share of otherwise creditworthy buyers,” he said. “Those potential buyers represent the difference between an uneven recovery and a much more robust housing market that could stimulate additional economic activity and create jobs.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.55 percent in July, up from 4.51 percent in June; the rate was 4.56 percent in July 2010. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 4.32 percent.

Contract failures – cancellations caused largely by declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price – were unchanged in July, reported by 16 percent of NAR members. In addition, 9 percent of Realtors report a contract was delayed in the past three months due to low appraisals, and another 13 percent said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price because an appraisal was below the initially agreed price.

NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said an unacceptably high number of potential home buyers are unable to complete transactions. “For both mortgage credit and home appraisals, there’s been a parallel pendulum swing from very loose standards which led to the housing boom, to unnecessarily restrictive practices as an overreaction to the housing correction,” he said.

“Beyond the tight credit problems, all appraisals must be done by valuators with local expertise and using reasonable comparisons – it doesn’t make sense to consistently see so many valuations coming in below negotiated prices, often below replacement construction costs,” Phipps said.

In an environment following a large price correction, Phipps said a price negotiated between a buyer and seller would appear to be a fair market price. “Banks frequently request numerous sales comparisons, well beyond the customary three comps used in the past, with little consideration that some of those properties may be discounted foreclosures used to valuate a traditional home in good condition,” he said. “To a great extent, banks are exerting influence on appraised valuations with negative impacts for both home sales and prices.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,000 in July, down 4.4 percent from July 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – accounted for 29 percent of sales in July, compared with 30 percent in June and 32 percent in July 2010.

Total housing inventory at the end of July fell 1.7 percent to 3.65 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from a 9.2-month supply in June.

All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of transactions in July, unchanged from June; they were 30 percent in June 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.

First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in July, up from 31 percent in June; they were 38 percent in July 2010. Investors accounted for 18 percent of purchase activity in July compared with 19 percent in June and 19 percent in July 2010. The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were a 50 percent market share in July, unchanged from June.

Single-family home sales declined 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.12 million in July from 4.29 million in June, but are 21.5 percent above the 3.39 million level in July 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $174,800 in July, down 4.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 550,000 in July, and are 17.3 percent above the 469,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $168,400 in July, down 4.0 percent from July 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 2.7 percent to an annual level of 750,000 in July and are 19.0 percent above July 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $245,600, down 6.8 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 1.0 percent in July to a pace of 1.05 million and are 31.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $146,300, down 2.9 percent from July 2010.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 1.6 percent to an annual level of 1.84 million in July but are 19.5 percent above July 2010. The median price in the South was $152,600, which is 2.2 percent below a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 12.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.04 million in July but are 16.9 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $208,300 down 7.1 percent from July 2010.

Realtors Say Home Prices Took Another Hit

San Antonio, Texas

Median existing-home prices declined modestly in the second quarter with 27 percent of metropolitan areas experiencing price gains from a year ago, while state home sales declined from the second quarter of 2010, according to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors.

The median existing single-family home price rose in 41 out of 151 metropolitan statistical areas1 (MSAs) in the second quarter from the same period in 2010, including four with double-digit increases; one was unchanged and 109 areas showed price declines. In the first quarter, 34 metro areas had posted gains from a year earlier.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home prices have been moderating. “Median home prices have been moving up and down in a relatively narrow range in many markets, which shows a stabilization trend,” he said. “Markets showing consistent price stability or increases are those with solid labor market conditions, such as in Washington, D.C.; San Antonio; or Fargo, N.D.”

Yun noted the median price measurement reflects the types of homes that are selling during the quarter and can be misleading at times. “The level of foreclosures, which can artificially depress median prices, can vary notably in given markets. The annual price gauge smoothes out the quarterly swings and has shown fairly stable price trends in most markets.”

He added the housing market should be stronger. “With home prices in a broad trough and historically low mortgage interest rates, high housing affordability conditions and rising rents could stimulate a more rapid sales recovery if banks get back into the business of lending to more creditworthy borrowers,” Yun said.

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index stood at 176.6 in the second quarter, the third highest on record after the first quarter of 2011 and fourth quarter of 2010. The index measures the relationship between median home price, median family income and mortgage interest rates; the higher the index, the greater household purchasing power. Record keeping began in 1970.

The national median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in the second quarter, down 2.8 percent from $176,800 in the second quarter of 2010. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed homes,2 typically sold at a discount of about 20 percent, accounted for 33 percent of second quarter sales, down from 39 percent in the first quarter; they were 32 percent a year earlier.

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, declined 5.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate3 of 4.86 million in the second quarter from 5.14 million in the first quarter, and were 12.7 percent below a 5.57 million pace during the second quarter of 2010. June 2010 was the closing deadline for the home buyer tax credit.

NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said the key to healthy housing is credit access. “It’s frustrating for many creditworthy potential home buyers to realize that when they’re ready to make a move, banks remain risk averse,” he said. “People with good jobs, long-term plans and who are willing to stay well within their means deserve an opportunity to realize their American dream of home ownership. When banks return to normal and safe but sensible lending standards, housing will be able to contribute its traditional share to economic growth.”

Yun clarified the point on economic growth. “The direction of the economy will be determined principally by the housing market recovery, and indications now are pointing toward only a modest recovery,” he said.

The share of all-cash home purchases was 30 percent in the second quarter, up from 25 percent in the second quarter of 2010. Investors, who make up the bulk of cash purchasers, accounted for 19 percent of second quarter transactions, up from 14 percent a year ago.

First-time buyers purchased 35 percent of homes, down from 46 percent in the second quarter of 2010. Repeat buyers accounted for a 56 percent market share in the second quarter, up from 40 percent a year earlier.

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 54 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $169,200 in the second quarter, which is 3.5 percent below the second quarter of 2010. Fourteen metros showed increases in the median condo price from a year ago and 40 areas had declines.

Regionally, the median existing single-family home price in the Northeast rose 2.0 percent to $245,600 in the second quarter from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 4.6 percent in the second quarter to a level of 763,000 and are 19.9 percent below the second quarter of 2010.

The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest fell 5.4 percent to $139,800 in the second quarter from the same period in 2010. Existing-home sales in the Midwest were down 3.1 percent in the second quarter to a pace of 1.05 million and are 18.3 percent below a year ago.

In the South, the median existing single-family home price declined 2.7 percent to $153,000 in the second quarter from a year earlier. Existing-home sales in the South fell 3.4 percent in the second quarter to an annual rate of 1.89 million and are 9.9 percent below the second quarter of 2010.

The median existing single-family home price in the West declined 3.1 percent to $218,000 in the second quarter from the second quarter of 2010. Existing-home sales in the West dropped 10.8 percent in the second quarter to a level of 1.16 million and are 6.2 percent below a year ago.

June Existing-Home Sales Slip Nationally, Improve in Texas Cities

Existing-home sales eased nationally in June as contract cancellations spiked unexpectedly, although prices were up slightly, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The numbers were better in the Dallas Metro with the median price increasing year-over-year and a .4 percent increase in price and a 3.1 percent increase in sales over June, 2010. I the same period, Houston experienced a 1.6 percent increase in price and a .3 percent drop in sales. San Antonio did the best among Texas Cities cited in the report with a 3.6 percent increase in price and a 1.6 percent increase in sales. 

Sales gains in the Midwest and South were offset by declines in the Northeast and West. Single-family home sales were stable while the condo sector weakened.

Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million in June from 4.81 million in May, and remain 8.8 percent below the 5.23 million unit level in June 2010, which was the scheduled closing deadline for the home buyer tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said this is an uneven recovery. “Home sales had been trending up without a tax stimulus, but a variety of issues are weighing on the market including an unusual spike in contract cancellations in the past month,” he said. “The underlying reason for elevated cancellations is unclear, but with problems including tight credit and low appraisals, 16 percent of NAR members report a sales contract was cancelled in June, up from 4 percent in May, which stands out in contrast with the pattern over the past year.”

Yun cited other factors in the sales performance. “Pending home sales were down in April but up in May, so we may be seeing some of that mix in closed sales for June. However, economic uncertainty and the federal budget debacle may be causing hesitation among some consumers or lenders.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $184,300 in June, up 0.8 percent from June 2010. Distressed homes3 – foreclosures and short sales generally sold at deep discounts – accounted for 30 percent of sales in June, compared with 31 percent in May and 32 percent in June 2010.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.51 percent in June, down from 4.64 percent in May; the rate was 4.74 percent in June 2010.

NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said home sales should be higher. “With record high housing affordability conditions thus far in 2011, we’d normally expect to see stronger home sales,” he said. “Even with job creation below expectations, excessively tight loan standards are keeping many buyers from completing deals. Although proposals being considered in Washington could effectively put more restrictions on lending, some banking executives have hinted that credit may return to more normal, safe standards in the not-too-distant future, but the tardiness of this process is holding back the recovery.”

Phipps added that lower mortgage loan limits, due to go into effect on October 1, already are having an impact. “Some lenders are placing lower loan limits on current contracts in anticipation they may not close before the end of September. As a result, some contracts may be getting cancelled because certain buyers are unwilling or unable to obtain a more costly jumbo mortgage,” he said.

Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 3.3 percent to 3.77 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from a 9.1-month supply in May.

All-cash transactions accounted for 29 percent of sales in June; they were 30 percent in May and 24 percent in June 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.

First-time buyers purchased 31 percent of homes in June, down from 36 percent in May; they were 43 percent in June 2010 when the tax credit was in place. Investors accounted for 19 percent of purchase activity in June, unchanged from May; they were 13 percent in June 2010.

The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were a 50 percent market share in June, up from 45 percent in May, which appears to be a normal seasonal gain.

Single-family home sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million in June, but are 7.4 percent below a 4.58 million pace in June 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $184,600 in June, up 0.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 7.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000 in June from 570,000 in May, and are 18.0 percent below the 646,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $182,300 in June, up 1.8 percent from June 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 5.2 percent to an annual pace of 730,000 in June and are 17.0 percent below June 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $261,000, up 3.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.0 percent in June to a pace of 1.04 million but are 14.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $147,700, down 5.3 percent from June 2010.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 0.5 percent to an annual level of 1.86 million in June but are 5.6 percent below June 2010. The median price in the South was $159,100, down 0.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 1.7 percent to an annual pace of 1.14 million in June and are 2.6 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $240,400, up 9.5 percent from June 2010.

Seven Out of 10 Renters Say Owning a Home is a Top Priority

Most Americans still believe that owning a home is a solid financial decision, and a majority of renters aspire to home ownership as a long-term goal. According to the 2011 National Housing Pulse Survey released today by the National Association of Realtors, 72 percent of renters surveyed said owning a home is a top priority for their future, up from 63 percent in 2010.

Seven in 10 Americans also agreed that buying a home is a good financial decision while almost two-thirds said now is a good time to purchase a home. The annual survey, which measures how affordable housing issues affect consumers, also found that more than three quarters of renters (77 percent) said they would be less likely to buy a home if they were required to put down a 20 percent down payment on the home, and a strong majority (71 percent) believe a 20 percent down payment requirement could have a negative impact on the housing market.

“Despite the economic setbacks Americans have experienced in today’s current climate, it is clear that a strong majority still believe in home ownership and aspire to own a home,” said NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I. “However, achieving the dream of home ownership will become increasingly difficult for buyers if they are required to make a 20 percent down payment, which may be a reality for many of tomorrow’s buyers if a proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule is adopted. That is why Realtors are strongly urging regulators to go back to the drawing board on the proposed rule.”

Defining the QRM rule is important because it will determine the types of mortgages that will generally be available to borrowers in the future. As currently proposed, borrowers with less than 20 percent down will have to choose between higher fees and rates today – up to 3 percentage points more – or a 9-14 year delay while they save up the necessary down payment.

Over half – 51 percent – of self-described “working class” home owners as well as younger non-college graduates (51 percent), African Americans (57 percent) and Hispanics (50 percent) who currently own their homes reported that a 20 percent down payment would have prevented them from becoming home owners.

Pulse surveys for the past eight years have consistently reported that having enough money for a down payment and closing costs are top obstacles that make housing unaffordable for Americans. Eighty-two percent of respondents cited these as the top obstacle, followed by having confidence in one’s job security.

The survey also found respondents were adamantly against eliminating the mortgage interest deduction. Two-thirds of Americans oppose eliminating the tax benefit, while 73 percent believe eliminating the MID will have a negative impact on the housing market as well as the overall economy.

“The MID facilitates home ownership by reducing the carrying costs of owning a home, and it makes a real difference to hard-working American families,” said Phipps. “Home ownership offers not only social benefits, but also long-term value for families, communities and the nation’s economy. We need to make sure that any changes to current programs or incentives don’t jeopardize our collective futures.”

When asked why home ownership matters to them, respondents cited stability and safety as the top reason. Long-term economic reasons such as building equity followed closely behind. On a local level, respondents said neighbors falling behind on their mortgages and the drop in home values were top concerns. Foreclosures also continue to remain a large concern, with almost half of those surveyed citing the issue as a problem in their area.

The 2011 National Housing Pulse Survey is conducted by American Strategies and Myers Research & Strategic Services for NAR’s Housing Opportunity Program. The telephone survey polled 1,250 adults nationwide, with an oversample of interviews of those living in the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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