Zillow Reviews Bumpy Road Toward Stabilization

Home values in the United States fell 0.4 percent from the first to the second quarter of 2011, the smallest quarterly decline in more than four years, according to Zillow's second quarter Real Estate Market Reports. The Zillow Home Value Index fell 6.2 percent year-over-year to $171,600. Home values have fallen 28.8 percent since they peaked in June 2006.

Regionally, home values fell on a year-over-year basis in 142 of the 154 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) covered by Zillow and were flat in eight. In the short term, however, nearly two-thirds of MSAs (94 of 154) experienced home value appreciation, with the Zillow Home Value Index rising from the first to the second quarter.

Negative equity fell slightly to 26.8 percent of single-family homeowners with mortgages in the second quarter, down from 28.4 percent in the first. A homeowner is in negative equity when they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth.

Meanwhile, the rate of foreclosure re-sales declined from its peak in March 2011, when 21.4 percent of all sales were foreclosure re-sales. In June, 19.7 percent of sales were foreclosure re-sales.

"While there are many positive signs in the second quarter, and it is clear the post-tax credit free-fall of home values is over, we're not out of the woods yet," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "It is very encouraging that two-thirds of markets in our report experienced home value appreciation, but we have to remember that this is coming on the heels of one of the worst quarters since the housing recession began.

"We expect a bumpy road ahead. There will be many ups and downs in home values before this is over, and we continue to expect a true bottom in 2012, at the earliest. There are still hazards in the form of a full foreclosure pipeline, high negative equity and fluctuations in demand."

While nearly two-thirds of markets showed appreciation from the first to the second quarter of 2011, far fewer have recorded a longer period of stabilization. Only 25 of the 154 MSAs covered in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports showed two consecutive quarters of appreciation. Among those MSAs were Washington, D.C., where the median home value increased 1.7 percent from the first to the second quarter after increasing 0.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first of 2011; and Pittsburgh, where home values increased 2.8 percent from the first to the second quarter, and increased 0.1 percent from the fourth to the first quarter.

Inland American Real Estate Trust, Inc. Acquires Historic Hotel in Dallas

Inland American Lodging Group, Inc. (“IALG”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Inland American Real Estate Trust, Inc. (“Inland American”), announced today that it has acquired The Fairmont Dallas for $69 million, or approximately $127,000/key. The Fairmont Dallas is a 545 guestroom hotel consisting of two towers and 70,000 square feet of meeting space. Opened in 1969 as the “first” luxury hotel in Texas, the property exudes an air of elegance and luxury, combined with a dash of Texas flair.

The Fairmont Dallas offers unparalleled accommodations that have received approximately $50 million of capital improvements since 1997, including $14.9 million ($27,300 per key) over the last four years. Inland American intends to invest in additional capital improvements that will allow the hotel to maintain and improve upon its luxury status.

Following the acquisition of The Fairmont Dallas, Inland American Real Estate Trust has whole or partial ownership interest in 16,628 hotel rooms across the U.S., including 16 full service hotels.

S&P: Seasonal Improvement in Home Prices in Dallas and Elsewhere

Data through May 2011, released by S&P Indices for its S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed a second consecutive month of increase in prices for the 10- and 20-City Composites. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 1.1 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, in May over April. Sixteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly increases; Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa were down over the month and Phoenix was unchanged.

Dalls showed a gain of .4 percent during the month and a 4.7 percent decline over a year period.

On an annual basis, Washington DC was the only MSA with a positive rate of change, up 1.3 percent. The remaining 19 MSAs and the 10- and 20- City Composites were down in May 2011 versus the same month last year. Minneapolis fared the worst posting a double-digit decline of 11.7 percent.

“We see some seasonal improvements with May’s data,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “This is a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are to be expected and were seen in 16 of the 20 cities. The exceptions where prices fell were Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa. However, 19 of 20 cities saw prices drop over the last 12 months. The concern is that much of the monthly gains are only seasonal.

“May’s report showed unusually large revisions across some of the MSAs. In particular, Detroit, New York, Tampa and Washington DC all saw above normal revisions. Our sales pairs data indicate that these markets reported a lot more sales from prior months, which caused the revisions. The lag in reporting home sales in these markets has increased over the past few months. Also, when sales volumes are relatively low, as is the case right now, revisions are more noticeable.

“Other recent housing statistics show that single-family housing starts were up moderately in June, and are at about the same pace as a year ago. Existing-home sales were flat in June, reportedly because of contract cancellations and tight credit. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default indices showed a continuing decline in mortgage default rates since last winter. Other reports confirm that banks have tightened lending standards in the past year, making it harder to qualify for a mortgage despite very low interest rates.

Combined, these data all support a continuation of the ‘bounce-along-the-bottom’ scenario we have witnessed in the housing market over the past two years.

“While the monthly data were encouraging, most MSAs and both Composites fared poorly in annual terms.

Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites posted negative annual growth rates in May 2011. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6 percent and the 20-City Composite was down 4.5 percent in May 2011 versus May 2010. Minneapolis posted a double-digit decline in annual rate of 11.7 percent. The only beacon of hope was Washington D.C. with a +1.3 percent annual growth rate and a +2.4 percent monthly increase. We have now seen two consecutive months of generally improving prices; however, we might have a long way to go before we see a real recovery. Sustained increases in home prices over several months and better annual results need to be seen before we can confirm real estate market recovery.”